David Murrin discusses his system of forecasting global geopolitics and market trends, which takes into account the stages of empire and imperial decline. There is a rhythm and drumbeat to war which has a bigger cycle of 112 years. We're looking at a struggle between maritime (lateral) democratic governance and landpower (hierarchical) autocratic governance. Democracy is weaker than its ever been. America entered the fifth stage of decline with 9/11. Western leadership is blind and driving the world to war, we're over the brink. WWIII started with the invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East is now on fire, and the last piece of the puzzle is when China chooses to go to war. Decline (e.g. USA) means the fracturing of systems and less to go around. We will continue to see de-dollarization, high inflation, and higher oil and gold prices. Bitcoin, blockchains, and crypto are temporary safe havens that will eventually collapse. We shouldn't worry about Davos Man.

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About David Murrin

David has been described as a polymath who started his career as a geophysicist, and who then entered finance at JP Morgan where he worked for seven years. Since then for more than two and a half decades he has been running his own hedge fund. During his financial career, his main focus has been on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns that comprise the study of human systems behavior. Including deep-seated ‘patterns’ in history and then using them to predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record. David has written four books. Breaking the Code of History recognizes that post 9/11, the world changed in an instant. Using his theory's of human social structures he was able to successfully predict back in 2007 the key process in human social structures that have impacted today’s changing world, including the decline of America and the West and the rise of China, and the reality of climate change. His second book released in 2018 is Lions Led By Lions which examines Britain’s misunderstood involvement in the First World War and the achieved learning curve of its Army's leadership that resulted in a war-winning British Expeditionary Force rolling back the German Army in 1918. The story provides clear lessons that should be applied by today's leaders concerning the deterrence of global conflict. David's third book is a call to arms, in which his Now or Never UK Defense Review highlights the clear and present threats faced by Britain in the years and decade ahead from Russia and especially China, and the urgency for the need for large scale rearmament to secure the future peace. David's latest book Red Lightning which integrates fact and fiction and describes from a future perspective how China wins WW3 in 2025. It is a sober warning to the leaders of the Western World, that peace will only be maintained by a hard-won deterrence of aggression.

*Podcast intro music is from the song "The Queens Jig" by "Musicke & Mirth" from their album "Music for Two Lyra Viols": http://musicke-mirth.de/en/recordings.html (available on iTunes or Amazon)