Update on the conflict in Ukraine for October 13, 2024…

- Russian forces have made significant advances all along the line of contact including beyond the now Russian-held city of Vugledar, around Pokrovsk, and toward Torestsk;

- Ukraine’s Western sponsors continue to incrementally admit the limits of their military support for Ukraine;

- Limitations to Ukrainian manpower are also increasingly being admitted to;

- Recent Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian maritime shipping have reversed the so-called Black Sea "victory" the collective West has hailed for months (if not years);

- Ukraine's "victory plan" most likely entails Ukraine being admitted into NATO as the conflict continues, creating similar dynamics to the US occupation of Syria, and locking Western military power in Eastern Europe making pursuit of US primacy elsewhere more difficult;

Sources:

Newsweek - Ukraine Halts Russia's Pokrovsk Offensive, Retakes Part of New-York—Reports (September 7, 2024):

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-halts-russias-pokrovsk-offensive-retakes-part-new-york-1949899

BBC - Russians claim key city of Vuhledar in Ukraine's east (October 2, 2024):

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2knzxn9x7o

The Times - Conscription tactics get dirty as war-weary Ukrainians defy draft (October 3, 2024):

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/conscription-tactics-get-dirty-as-war-weary-ukrainians-defy-draft-8zb26rt2p

Forbes - Ukraine Is Now Able To Produce 155mm Artillery Shells And Howitzers (September 22, 2024):

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2024/09/22/ukraine-is-now-able-to-produce-155mm-artillery-shells-and-howitzers/

Reuters - Ukraine says Russian missiles strike two Black Sea grain vessels (October 8, 2024):

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-missile-strike-damaged-vessel-carrying-grain-pivdennyi-port-2024-10-07/

NYT - September Was Deadly Month for Russian Troops in Ukraine, U.S. Says (October 10, 2024):

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/russia-casualties-ukraine-war.html

NYT - The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin (February 2024):

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html

Washington Post - Basic training in Ukraine is barely covering the basics, commanders say (June 2024):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/02/ukraine-training-soldiers-mobilization-war/

Guardian - Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy presents ‘victory plan’ to European allies as long-range strikes discussed (October 11, 2024):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/11/ukraine-war-briefing-zelenskyy-presents-victory-plan-to-european-allies-as-long-range-strikes-discussed

NATO - Collective defence and Article 5:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=Article%205%20provides%20that%20if,to%20assist%20the%20Ally%20attacked.

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