The conflict in Ukraine has reached a breaking point marking the gradual shift of the initiative on the battlefield to Russia and a growing disarray among the supporters of Kyiv.

Since mid-2023, Kyiv’s forces have thrown away an incredible amount of military equipment and manpower in fruitless attempts to break through the Russian defense in the southern sector of the frontline. NATO-equipped and NATO-trained detachments planned to carry out a victorious march on Crimea but ended up in unmarked graves all around the Donbass steppe. The butchery of Ukrainian reserves organized by the Kyiv leadership and its foreign advisers led to the capture of only a few empty villages in the gray zone.

By February of 2024, a crack had formed in the parallel reality existing in the MSM coverage and statements of US and EU diplomats. Hopes of sponsors of Kyiv to skim the cream off the Russian “defeat on the battlefield” and the “collapse of its statehood” were destroyed. The cost of the conflict is growing day by day. In turn, the Russian economy that they wanted to throw into the “stone age” seems to be doing much better than anybody among mainstream economic analysts even allowed themselves to think about.

The Biden administration has been struggling to push the new “aid” package to Zelensky and hangers-on. The fixation of the Biden Team on Ukraine instead of dealing with internal economic and social challenges plays into the hands of his opponents in the upcoming presidential election. From the useful tool in the standoff with Russia, Ukraine became a bargaining chip in internal political games. Both Democrats and Republicans would be happy to move away from this situation by laying blame on the failure on their opponents. European minions of Washington are in an even more complex situation. They have already undermined own economical potential and burned a lot of bridges with Russia.

These are highlighted by the collapse of the Ukrainian attempts to keep control of Avdeevka, which is strategically located close to the city of Donetsk. In the past 24 hours, Russian units were able to split the remaining Ukrainian forces into two isolated groups from the northeastern direction. Russian units took control of the “Zenit” fortified area, on the territory of the former air defense base, as well as entered the so-called Brev no, Vinogradniki and Cheburashka. Parts of Kyiv troops deployed there are fleeing their positions or surrendering to the Russians. Meanwhile, General Aleksandr Tarnavksy, the head of the operational-strategic group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces active in Avdeevka claimed that all is under control and his forces are just carrying out a “maneuver”. Apparently, the next stage will be to claim that nobody even wanted to control that unimportant town and the entire situation was an epic success. No surprise, even the most dedicated supporters of Kyiv have doubts about the prospects of the regime.

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